Original Mehri Madarshahi IPP评论 2025年02月08日 10:31
IPP评论是国家高端智库华南理工大学公共政策研究院（IPP）官方微信平台
导语：
2024年“超级选举年”的经济冲击和政治动荡埋下诸多隐忧：多国民粹主义和右翼政治力量日益崛起，全球地缘政治裂隙不减反增，大国博弈的广度和烈度不断上升。世界经济论坛近日发布的报告指出，进入2025年，全球面临主要风险包括国家间武装冲突、地缘经济对抗、虚假信息、社会极化，这些因素相互交织，扩大了全球发展的不确定性。
IPP客座教授、联合国教科文组织国际创意和可持续发展中心顾问理事 Mehri Madarshahi 教授认为，多国政坛动荡的复合影响可能外溢至全球经济和政治环境，塑造2025年及以后的发展轨迹，在此期间，民主和民主规则可能遭受更多挑战。美国等国家正经历战略调整，中国可以抓住权力真空期，将自己定位为全球领导者。通过制定战略目标、壮大经济实力和地缘政治议程，在全球范围内扩大其影响力。
全球动荡与政治格局的变迁 The Global Upheavals and the Shifting Political Landscape
自从去年九月份发表关于“技术创新、人工智能及其在重塑未来道路中的作用”的文章以来，我目睹了世界经历了巨大的动荡。在不可避免的风暴和飓风中，我看到了世界如何愚蠢地在沙滩上建造充满希望的城堡，却又被经济、政治和社会动荡的浪潮冲垮。正如克里斯·海斯（Chris Hayes）最近在《纽约时报》观点栏目撰写的客座文章中所描述的那样：
Since my last article on ‘Technological Innovations, AI, and Their Roles in Reinventing a New Path for the Future” in September, I have watched the world undergo tremendous upheavals. Amid inevitable storms and hurricanes, I have witnessed how the world foolishly builds hopeful castles in the sand, only to see them washed away by waves of economic, political, and social turmoil. As Chris Hayes aptly describes in his recent guest essay for The New York Times Opinion section:
“在了解世界动态和成为一个有感知的人之间，我们被困在一个没有空间静坐思考的时代。”
“Between staying apprised of what is happening in the world and becoming a person who feels, we are trapped in an age that leaves no space to simply sit and think.”
2024年，这个已被历史埋葬的年份，充满了前所未有的戏剧性事件、经济冲击和政治动荡，留下了需要多年才能愈合的深刻伤痕。在短短十二个月内，全球近70个国家——占全球人口的一半——举行了选举。
The year 2024, now buried in history, was marked by unprecedented drama, economic disruption, and political upheavals, leaving deep scars that will take years to heal. In just twelve months, nearly 70 countries home to half of the global population held elections.
反在任者浪潮 The Anti-Incumbent Wave
这些选举中的一个普遍现象，是由高通胀和疫情后经济失调引发的经济不满。这些因素导致了反在任者情绪的激增。
A common phenomenon across many of these elections was widespread economic dissatisfaction, driven by high inflation and post-pandemic disruptions. These factors led to a surge in anti-incumbent sentiment.
2024年，全球一半的人口对经济不稳定感到厌倦，并被社交媒体上的虚假信息激怒，拒绝了他们的现任政府。曼彻斯特大学的罗布·福特（Rob Ford）将这一趋势称为“选举长新冠”，描述了疫情的长期影响如何加剧了政治不满。
In 2024, half of the global population, weary of economic instability and agitated by the flood of disinformation on social media, rejected their sitting governments. Rob Ford, from the University of Manchester, referred to this trend as “electoral long COVID”, describing how the lingering effects of the pandemic influenced political discontent.
这股反现任浪潮席卷了印度、美国、日本、法国、英国等国家，这些国家一直在应对因疫情引发的健康、教育、社会和经济失调，并因俄乌战争、大规模流离失所和中东冲突而进一步恶化。
This anti-incumbent wave swept across India, the United States, Japan, France, Britain, and beyond nations that had been grappling with economic woes exacerbated by lingering pandemic-related health, education, social, and economic disruptions, and further worsened by the Russian-Ukrainian war, mass displacement, and conflicts in the Middle East.
非洲也不例外。失业率上升和经济不平等导致南非的非洲国民大会党（ANC）——纳尔逊·曼德拉的政党——支持率历史性下降。这一变化引发了莫桑比克、塞内加尔、加纳、博茨瓦纳和纳米比亚的大规模抗议，长期执政的政党被推翻。
Africa was no exception. Rising unemployment and economic inequality led to a historic decline in support for South Africa “African National Congress (ANC)”, the party of Nelson Mandela. This shift triggered mass protests across Mozambique, Senegal, Ghana, Botswana, and Namibia, where long-standing ruling parties were unseated.
与此同时，乌拉圭的左翼反对派赢得了总统选举，而在印度，纳伦德拉·莫迪的执政党失去了议会多数席位。
Meanwhile, in Uruguay, the leftist opposition won the presidency, and in India, Narendra Modi ruling party lost its parliamentary majority despite the country status as the world largest democracy.
在欧洲，动荡仍在继续。日本政治进入了一个新的不确定时代，首相石破茂的自由民主党（LDP）自1955年以来几乎不间断地执政，但在这次选举中却因财务丑闻而遭受重大挫败。
In Europe, turmoil continued. Japan politics entered a new era of uncertainty after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which had ruled almost uninterrupted since 1955, suffered a major loss due to financial scandals.
2024年7月的英国选举将保守党赶下台，结束了他们14年的执政，取而代之的是中左翼的工党。
The UK elections in July 2024 ousted the Conservative Party after 14 years, replacing them with the center-left Labour Party.
与此同时，在法国，反移民的“国民联盟”党在6月的议会选举第一轮中获胜，但中间派和左翼力量的战术投票在第二轮中将他们推至第三位。结果？一个分裂的立法机构和脆弱的政府在12月4日的不信任投票后第三次垮台。
Meanwhile, in France, the anti-immigration National Rally party won the first round of parliamentary elections in June, but tactical voting by centrist and left-wing forces pushed them into third place in the second round. The result? A divided legislature and a fragile government that collapsed for the third time on December 4 after a no-confidence vote.
欧盟也见证了保守民粹主义的崛起，极右翼政党在法国和德国取得了进展。
The European Union also witnessed a shift toward conservative populism, with far-right parties gaining ground in France and Germany.
在孟加拉国，总理谢赫·哈西娜在反对派抵制的选举中第四次连任。然而，在持续数月的学生抗议活动（期间数百人被杀）后，她被迫于8月下台。
In Bangladesh, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina secured a fourth successive term in an election boycotted by the opposition. However, after months of mass student protests, during which hundreds were killed, she was forced to step down in August.
在斯里兰卡，选民在9月选举了马克思主义者阿努拉·库马拉·迪萨纳亚克（Anura Kumara Dissanayake）为总统。这是两年前推翻长期执政的拉贾帕克萨家族被公众推翻后，斯里兰卡政治又一次戏剧性转变。
In Sri Lanka, voters elected the Marxist Anura Kumara Dissanayake as president in September, marking a dramatic shift two years after the public ousted the long-ruling Rajapaksa dynasty.
裙带关系仍然是几个选举结果的标志。在巴基斯坦，经过2月的混乱选举后，总理谢赫巴兹·谢里夫（Shehbaz Sharif）——三任领导人纳瓦兹·谢里夫（Nawaz Sharif）的兄弟——上台。同样，在印度尼西亚，前独裁者苏哈托的女婿普拉博沃·苏比安托（Prabowo Subianto）上台。
Nepotism remained a hallmark of several electoral outcomes. In Pakistan, after a chaotic February election, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s brother of three-time leader Nawaz Sharif took office. Similarly, in Indonesia, President Prabowo Subianto, son-in-law of former dictator Suharto, ascended to power.
乔治亚大学的卡斯·穆德（Cas Mudde）教授将2024年总结为“极右翼的伟大一年，现任者的糟糕一年，民主的麻烦一年”。
Professor Cas Mudde of the University of Georgia summed up 2024 as “a great year for the far right, a terrible year for incumbents, and a troublesome year for democracy”.
极右翼的崛起与全球民主的倒退The Rise of the Far-Right and the Global Democratic Backslide
极右翼的崛起在罗马尼亚尤为明显，政治素人C. Georgescu 得益于TikTok驱动的竞选活动，在11月的总统选举第一轮中获胜。然而，在“俄罗斯干预”的指控下，罗马尼亚宪法法院在总统决选前两天取消了选举——这一决定动摇了该国的民主制度。
The rise of the far right was particularly evident in Romania, where C. Georgescu, a political outsider, won the first round of the presidential election in November, fueled by a TikTok-driven campaign. However, amid allegations of Russian meddling, Romania Constitutional Court canceled the presidential runoff just two days before it was set to take place a decision that shook the country democratic institutions.
同样，在格鲁吉亚，亲莫斯科的“格鲁吉亚梦想”党在10月的选举中获胜，暂停了加入欧盟的谈判。总统萨洛梅·祖拉比什维利（Salome Zourabichvili）指责执政党在俄罗斯的帮助下操纵了选举。
Similarly, in Georgia, the pro-Moscow Georgian Dream party won the October election, suspending negotiations on joining the European Union. President Salome Zourabichvili accused the governing party of rigging the vote with Russian assistance.
极右翼的亲俄“自由党”在9月的奥地利选举中获胜——这一结果并不令观察家感到意外。经过长时间的谈判，奥地利总统委托该党组建政府。
The far-right pro-Russia Freedom Party won Austria elections in September an outcome that surprised few observers. After prolonged negotiations, the Austrian president tasked the party with forming a government.
虚假信息与选举操纵 Disinformation and the Manipulation of Elections
在许多选举中，对秘密干预和在线虚假信息的担忧日益增加。Meta——Facebook、Instagram和WhatsApp的母公司——报告称，仅在2024年就删除了20个与选举相关的秘密影响力操作。
Across many elections, concerns over covert meddling and online disinformation grew. Meta, the parent company of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, reported taking down 20 election-related covert influence operations worldwide in 2024 alone.
然而，打击虚假信息的努力常常被政治化和武器化，降低了其有效性，并给政府施加了压力。民粹主义领导人在这种环境中茁壮成长，利用经济焦虑指责全球化，并将移民、难民和少数族裔作为替罪羊。他们指责贸易协议、外国竞争和跨国公司造成了经济困境。他们承诺带回工作机会并保护本地产业，引起了那些被抛在后面的人的共鸣。
Efforts to counter disinformation were, however, often politicized and weaponized, reducing their effectiveness and placing pressure on governments to act. Populist leaders thrived in this environment, exploiting economic anxieties, blaming globalization, and scapegoating immigrants, refugees, and minorities. They blamed trade deals, foreign competition, and multinational corporations for economic woes. They promised to bring jobs back and protect local industries, resonating with those left behind.
民粹主义领导人放大了这些恐惧，将移民和难民描绘成对工作、社会凝聚力和安全的威胁。
Populist leaders amplified these fears, framing immigrants and refugees as threats to jobs, social cohesion, and security.
唐纳德·特朗普的回归与全球秩序的变化 The Return of Donald Trump and the Shift in Global Order
或许2024年最具震撼性的政治进程是唐纳德·特朗普重返白宫。特朗普掌握了国会、司法、最高法院、财政部和安全机构的全面控制，迅速实施了他的议程。
Perhaps the most seismic political development of 2024 was Donald Trump return to the White House. Armed with full control of Congress, the judiciary, the Supreme Court, the Treasury, and the security apparatus, Trump wasted no time in implementing his agenda.
唐纳德·特朗普击败了副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯，第二次非连续担任美国总统。他的竞选活动聚焦于经济和移民问题，其胜利引发了人们对美国民主未来的担忧。
Donald Trump secured a second non-consecutive term as President of the United States, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris. His campaign focused on economic and immigration issues, and his victory has raised concerns about the future of American democracy.
在就职典礼结束后的几分钟内，特朗普签署了一系列行政命令，驱逐了数百万无证工人，解雇了相当一部分美国公务员，废除了对少数群体的关键法律保护，并利用关税作为惩罚全球贸易伙伴的武器。
Mere minutes after his swearing-in ceremony, Trump signed a flurry of executive orders that deported millions of undocumented workers, laid off a sizable portion of the U.S. civil service, dismantled key legal protections for minority groups, and used tariffs as a weapon to punish global trade partners.
通过颠覆实践的法律和秩序（作为民主的灯塔），他将关税视为“美国优先”战略的胜利，用来惩罚所有他想要惩罚的对象。就职一周后，一系列行政命令、夸夸其谈的声明和偶尔的倒退塑造了他的新任期。
By turning the practiced laws and orders (as the beacon of democracy) on their head, he cherished his new weapon tariffs as a triumph of the America First strategy against all whom he sought to punish. A week after his inauguration, a barrage of executive orders, bombastic proclamations, and occasional backtracks shaped his new term in office.
特朗普对移民的强硬立场、对气候科学的怀疑以及对保护少数群体（包括LGBT群体）法律的反对，都构成了对政治权利的攻击。他像一个“美国凯撒”——一个强人、一个准君主，将政治系统弯曲到他的意志之下，即使这意味着践踏民主制度中本应制约行政权力的规范和制衡。
Trump’s hard-line stance on migration, skepticism of climate science, and opposition to laws and regulations protecting minorities, including the LGBT community, all constitute an attack on political rights. He acts as anAmerican Caesar a strongman, a quasi-monarch bending the political system to his will, even if that meant running roughshod over the institutional norms and checks that were supposed to temper executive power in a democracy.
尽管他在竞选期间否认，但特朗普似乎正在实施右翼的“2025计划”，以拆解并重塑联邦政府，清除官僚机构中可能不听话的官员，并在权力杠杆上安插更多忠诚者。
To that end despite his denials on the campaign trail, Trump appears to be enacting elements of the right-wing Project 2025 plan to dismantle and reshape the federal government, purge the bureaucracy of potentially obstreperous officials, and position more loyalists over the levers of power.
特朗普在打破西方传统经济和政治共识方面表现得更加大胆。他的民粹主义-民族主义竞选口号已经让位于美国历史上最富有、充满了前CEO和超级富豪金融家的内阁，他们与特朗普和马斯克一样热衷于去监管。
Trump has proven to be much bolder in breaking with the traditional consensus on economics and politics in the West. His populist-nationalist campaign pitch has given way to the wealthiest Cabinet in U.S. history, replete with former CEOs and ultra-wealthy financiers who share Trump and Musk zeal for deregulation.
杰夫·贝索斯（Jeff Bezos）和马克·扎克伯格（Mark Zuckerberg）越来越多地影响公共议程，从太空政策到言论自由辩论。埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）的案例展示了资本家对政治格局的深远影响。他塑造能源政策、太空探索、全球连接和公共议程的能力，既展示了集中私人权力在民主社会中的机遇，也揭示了其风险。马斯克的影响力可能会继续增长，引发关于问责、治理和资本家在塑造未来中的角色的关键问题。
Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg increasingly influence public discourse, from space policy to free speech debates. Elon Musk case demonstrates the profound impact that a capitalist can have on the political landscape. His ability to shape energy policy, space exploration, global connectivity, and public discourse illustrates both the opportunities and risks of concentrated private power in democratic societies. Musk influence will likely continue to grow, raising critical questions about accountability, governance, and the role of capitalists in shaping the future.
特朗普的“美国优先”战略进一步加速了全球合作的瓦解。他的政府削弱了世界卫生组织（WHO）、世界贸易组织（WTO）和联合国（UN）等国际机构，为其他大国（如中国）扩大其全球影响力铺平了道路。
Trump America First strategy has further accelerated the unraveling of global cooperation. His administration weakened international institutions like the WHO, WTO, and UN, paving the way for other power such as China to expand their global influence.
唐纳德·特朗普强调亲商政策，如减税、去监管和自由市场改革。这引起了那些认为全球化优先考虑企业利益而非本地经济的选民的共鸣，这一趋势在过去几年中尤为明显，全球自由主义秩序经历了历史性的转变。
Donald Trump has emphasized pro-business policies, such as tax cuts, deregulation, and free-market reforms. This resonated with voters who felt globalization prioritizes corporate interests over local economies, a trend that has been nurtured particularly in the past few years, where the global liberal order has undergone a historic transformation.
民族主义和民粹主义运动在全球北方（包括美国、巴西、英国、荷兰、匈牙利、奥地利和意大利）的力量不断增强。它们也成为法国、德国和西班牙的破坏性力量。尽管这些国家中的大多数是新自由主义经济秩序的缔造者和倡导者，共同努力降低贸易壁垒，促进经济发展，增加市场准入。
Nationalist and populist movements have grown in power across the global North, including in the United States, Brazil, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Hungary, Austria, and Italy. They have also become disruptive forces in France, Germany, and Spain. This is despite the fact that most of these countries were the architects and proponents of the neoliberal economic order, working together to lower barriers to trade, promote economic development, and increase market access.
以特朗普为引领者，今天我们目睹了全球自由主义秩序的削弱，现在崛起的极右翼正试图重塑话语体系。这一新运动依赖于那些被外部力量抛在后面的弱势人群日益增长的社会孤立感。他们在传统行业中的工作被技术、创新和离岸外包所取代。现代化的快速步伐打乱了他们熟悉的生活方式，解构了他们古老的信仰结构，并引发了困惑和不确定性。因此，他们在极右翼运动和意识形态中找到了替代的舒适区。
With Trump as the torchbearer, today we are witnessing the weakening of the global liberal order, and the now-rising ultra-right is attempting to reshape the discourse. This new movement has banked on the growing social isolation felt by vulnerable people left behind by forces outside their control. Their jobs in traditional industries were eliminated and taken over by technology, innovation, and offshoring. The rapid pace of modernization disrupted their familiar way of life, unraveled the ancient fabric of their faith, and created confusion and uncertainty. So, they found their alternative comfort in the ultra-right movement and ideology.
此外，特朗普政治的回响在世界各地都能感受到。Moreover, the echo of Trump politics can be felt and heard around the world.在法国，马琳·勒庞（Marine Le Pen）的“国民联盟”指责全球化侵蚀了法国的传统价值观和经济安全，推动反欧盟和反移民政策。
In France, Marine Le Pen National Rally blames globalization for eroding traditional French values and economic security, pushing anti-EU and anti-immigration policies.
东欧领导人，如匈牙利的维克托·欧尔班（Viktor Orbán），拒绝欧盟关于移民和多元文化的规范，强调民族身份认同。
Eastern European leaders like Viktor Orbr¡n in Hungary reject EU norms on migration and multiculturalism, emphasizing national identity.
在欧洲，民主的坎坷之路似乎还将继续，德国、法国和加拿大的现任领导人面临着诸多挑战，他们也将被这股趋势裹挟前行。
In Europe, democracy bumpy ride looks likely to continue, carrying along embattled incumbents who face challenges in Germany, France, and Canada.
在德国，总理奥拉夫·朔尔茨（Olaf Scholz）在12月16日的不信任投票中失利，触发了可能在2月提前举行的选举。
In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote on December 16, triggering an early election likely in February.
加拿大将在2025年3月举行选举，执政党在近十年的执政后日益分裂。
Canada will vote in March 2025, with the governing party increasingly divided after almost a decade in power.
在法国，总统马克龙（Emmanuel Macron）发起的临时议会选举导致了议会陷入僵局，形成了一个无法达成多数共识的“悬浮议会”。由此产生的政治动荡持续至今，助长了极右翼在2027年总统选举后上台的预期。
In France, President Emmanuel Macron snap parliamentary elections led to a deadlocked hung parliament. The resultant political instability continues to this day, feeding expectations that the ultra-right will rise to power after the 2027 presidential elections.
这些事件的复合影响可能影响全球经济和政治环境，塑造2025年及以后的发展轨迹。民主和民主规则可能很快成为历史的一章，但在现在与过去和未来之间的空白必须很快被替代方案填补。
These events collectively could influence the global economic and political environment, shaping the trajectory for 2025 and beyond. Democracy and democratic rules may soon become a chapter in history, but the vacuum between what is and what has been and what will be must soon be filled with an alternative.
尽管不应夸大民粹主义和民族主义对全球化和现有全球治理机构的反弹，但在唐纳德·特朗普领导下的美国政策的明显转变似乎正在进行。无论他总统任期的未来如何，民族主义或主权主义对全球治理的破坏性影响今天比表面上看起来更大、更直接。
Although the populist and nationalist backlash against globalization and existing global governance institutions should not be overstated, a clear shift in American policy under Donald Trump appears to be underway. Whatever the future of his presidency, the disruptive effects of nationalist or sovereigntist influence on global governance appear greater today and more immediate than meets the eye.
中国在全球权力真空中的机遇 China’s Opportunity in the Global Power Vacuum
随着美国从多边主义退缩，中国可以抓住机会将自己定位为全球领导者。美国对国际合作的新方式——以民族主义、对多边协议的怀疑和对联盟的交易性看法为标志——可能允许中国，根据其战略目标、经济实力和地缘政治议程，在全球范围内扩大其影响力。作为世界第二大经济体，它可以继续在亚洲、非洲和拉丁美洲分享中国的发展经验。
With the U.S. retreating from multilateralism, China could seize the opportunity to position itself as a global leader. The new U.S. approach to international cooperations marked by nationalism, skepticism of multilateral agreements, and a transactional view of alliances may allow China, depending on its strategic objectives, economic power, and geopolitical ambitions, to expand its influence globally. As the world second-largest economy, it could continue promoting alternative economic models, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
随着美国在特朗普领导下退出《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（TPP），中国可以介入，增强区域经济领导力，并通过支持《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）等自由贸易协定，扩大“一带一路”倡议（BRI），将自己定位为全球贸易的领导者。
With the U.S. withdrawing from agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) under Trump, China could step in to enhance regional economic leadership and position itself as a leader in global trade by supporting free trade agreements like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and expanding the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
特朗普退出或对世界卫生组织（WHO）、世界贸易组织（WTO）和联合国（UN）等组织的敌意，可能为中国在这些机构中获得影响力并增加其在其他机构（如亚洲基础设施投资银行（AIIB）、全球发展倡议（GDI）和全球安全倡议（GSI））中的控制权敞开大门，为西方主导的全球秩序结构提供替代方案。
Trump’s withdrawal from or hostility toward organizations like the WHO, WTO, and UN could leave the door wide open for China to gain influence in these institutions and increase its control in others, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the Global Development Initiative (GDI), and the Global Security Initiative (GSI) presenting alternatives to Western-led global order structures.
特朗普退出《巴黎气候协定》也为中国提供将自己定位为绿色能源和气候外交领导者的机会。中国近年来在可再生能源、电动汽车和绿色金融方面投入巨资，将自身塑造为负责任的环境大国。
Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement has also created an opportunity for China to position itself as a leader in green energy and climate diplomacy. China has invested heavily in recent years in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and green finance, projecting itself as a responsible environmental power.
对非洲的支持是中美关系的另一条分歧线。中国与非洲的合作是中国外交政策的一大特色，尤其是通过“一带一路”基础设施项目。在去年北京举办的中非合作论坛峰会后，中国再次承诺增加对非洲的投资，并将自身定位为非洲领导人更可靠的发展伙伴，非洲国家已经依赖北京的贷款和其他支持。
Support for Africa is another fault line for the US-China relationship. China’s engagement with Africa has been a defining feature of its foreign policy, notably through its Belt and Road infrastructure projects. Beijing recommitted to increasing investments on the continent after the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation summit was hosted in Beijing last year and China primed itself as a better development ally to African leaders who are already relying on Beijing for loans and other support.
在军事方面，随着特朗普专注于“美国优先”议程并质疑北约、加拿大、墨西哥和欧洲等联盟，中国加深了与俄罗斯、中亚和全球南方的战略联系，可能重塑地缘政治格局。
On the military side, with Trump focusing on an America First approach and questioning alliances like NATO, Canada, Mexico and Europe, Chinahas deepened its strategic ties with Russia, Central Asia, and the Global South potentially reshaping the geopolitical landscape.
至于技术创新领导力，我们必须说，中国已经通过5G扩展、人工智能（特别是争议性的 DeepSeek）、数字人民币和替代金融系统（如通过跨境银行间支付系统绕过SWIFT）塑造了远远领先于美国的全球技术治理。
As for the technological innovation leadership, we must say that China is already shaping global technology governance through 5G expansion, AI (particularly with DeepSeek, known as distruptive), digital yuan, and alternative financial systems (like bypassing SWIFT with the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) far in advance of the United States.
中国政治中的这些新增强策略可能会引发全球的怀疑态度、与美国的战略竞争以及内部经济和政治约束。然而，真正的考验在于，中国是否愿意提供一个真正有吸引力的替代方案，取代美国主导的世界秩序。在这种情况下，多极化可能会取代单极化，因为不断变化的全球环境将在其形成过程中发挥重要作用。
These new and enhanced strategies in Chinese politics may give rise to global skepticism, strategic competition with the U.S., and internal economic and political constraints. The real test, however, is whether China will be willing to offer a truly attractive alternative to the U.S.-led world order, in which multipolarity could replace uni-polarity given the changing global circumstances that will play a major role in its fomation?
民主与全球治理的未来 The Future of Democracy and Global Governance
在现代自由民主国家中，财富与政治权力的交织给民主治理带来了重大挑战。尽管民主本应基于人民主权的原则运行，即民选代表服务于人民的意愿，但资本家、寡头和企业精英的影响力日益增强，已经重塑了决策过程，使其更倾向于维护少数富人的利益，而不是更广泛的公众利益。
In modern liberal democracies, the intersection of wealth and political power has created a significant challenge to democratic governance. While democracy is meant to function on the principle of popular sovereignty, where elected representatives serve the will of the people, the increasing dominance of capitalists, oligarchs, and corporate elites has restructured decision-making processes to favor the interests of the wealthy few rather than the broader public.
民主规范的侵蚀以及迎合精英的经济政策导致了日益加剧的不平等、对民主制度的不满以及民粹主义运动的兴起，这些运动正在挑战自由主义世界秩序
The erosion of democratic norms and economic policies catering to elites has led to growing inequality, dissatisfaction with democratic institutions, and the rise of populist movements that challenge the liberal world order.
自由民主制度最初建立在制衡的理念之上，其中的机构和政治代表对权力过度集中起到限制作用。然而，在近几十年来，资本家们越来越多地绕过了传统的民主机制，常常利用他们的金融和技术资源来施加与其不成比例的影响力。
Liberal democracies were originally built on the idea of checks and balances, where institutions and political representatives limit excessive power concentrations. However, in recent decades, capitalists have increasingly bypassed traditional democratic mechanisms, often leveraging their financial and technological resources to exert disproportionate influence.
当民主面临数十年来最大的生存威胁时，资本家和寡头对自由治理的影响正在从内部侵蚀民主。国际货币基金组织（IMF）和世界银行这样的机构警告说，日益加剧的不平等正在引发政治不稳定、社会动荡以及民主规范的侵蚀
As democracy faces its biggest existential threat in decades, the Influence of Capitalists and Oligarchs on Liberal Governance is eroding democracy from within. Institutions like the IMF and World Bank warn that rising inequality is fueling political instability, social unrest, and the erosion of democratic norms.
国际民主与选举援助研究所（International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance）的民主评估负责人西玛·沙阿（Seema Shah）直言不讳地说：Seema Shah, head of democracy assessment at the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, put it bluntly:
“人们想要民主。他们喜欢它的理论，但当他们看到它在实践中时，它并没有达到他们的期望。”
“People want democracy. They like the theory of it, but when they see it in practice, it’s not living up to their expectations”.
随着我们进入2025年，一个问题仍然存在：全球自由主义衰退所留下的空白将由什么来填补？多极世界秩序出现的可能性有多大？这些问题的答案将决定未来几代人的全球治理、民主和经济稳定的轨迹。
As we enter 2025 and beyond, the question remains: What will fill the vacuum left by the decline of global liberalism? What are the possibilities for a multipolar world order to emerge? The answer will determine the trajectory of global governance, democracy, and economic stability for generations to come.
*本文作者：梅里·马达沙希（Mehri Madarshahi），华南理工大学公共政策研究院（IPP）荣誉教授、华南理工大学客座教授、联合国教科文组织（UNESCO）国际创意与可持续发展中心顾问理事