{"id":5492,"date":"2026-03-19T01:46:01","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T08:46:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cultureisglobal.org\/?p=5492"},"modified":"2026-03-19T01:46:04","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T08:46:04","slug":"the-iran-test-strategic-autonomy-and-the-fracturing-of-great-power-coalitions-%e6%a2%85%e9%87%8c%c2%b7%e9%a9%ac%e8%be%be%e6%b2%99%e5%b8%8c%ef%bd%9c%e4%bc%8a%e6%9c%97%e8%80%83%e9%aa%8c%ef%bc%9a","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cultureisglobal.org\/staging\/the-iran-test-strategic-autonomy-and-the-fracturing-of-great-power-coalitions-%e6%a2%85%e9%87%8c%c2%b7%e9%a9%ac%e8%be%be%e6%b2%99%e5%b8%8c%ef%bd%9c%e4%bc%8a%e6%9c%97%e8%80%83%e9%aa%8c%ef%bc%9a\/","title":{"rendered":"The Iran Test:\u00a0Strategic Autonomy and the Fracturing of Great-Power Coalitions \u6885\u91cc\u00b7\u9a6c\u8fbe\u6c99\u5e0c\uff5c\u4f0a\u6717\u8003\u9a8c\uff1a\u6218\u7565\u81ea\u4e3b\u4e0e\u5927\u56fd\u8054\u76df\u7684\u74e6\u89e3"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Origin: https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s\/wNi5EsZil5CQQDzopgfmrg<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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IPP\u8363\u8a89\u6559\u6388\u6885\u91cc\u00b7\u9a6c\u8fbe\u6c99\u5e0c\uff08Mehri Madarshahi\uff09<\/strong>\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u4e8b\u66b4\u9732\u51fa\u201c\u5927\u56fd\u8054\u76df\u201d\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u56fa\u6709\u5c40\u9650\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5f70\u663e\u51fa\u6218\u7565\u81ea\u4e3b\u6027\u5728\u5f53\u4eca\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u65e5\u76ca\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u4ee5\u201c\u5168\u7403\u5357\u65b9\u201d\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e3a\u4ee3\u8868\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5370\u5ea6\u3001\u5df4\u897f\u3001\u5370\u5c3c\u3001\u6c99\u7279\u548c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u7b49\u5177\u5907\u72ec\u7acb\u5916\u4ea4\u80fd\u52a8\u6027\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\uff0c\u6216\u5c06\u9010\u6b65\u8131\u79bb\u5bf9\u7279\u5b9a\u5927\u56fd\u96c6\u56e2\u7684\u4f9d\u9644\uff0c\u8f6c\u800c\u901a\u8fc7\u6218\u7565\u5bf9\u51b2\u4e0e\u591a\u8fb9\u534f\u4f5c\u8c0b\u6c42\u81ea\u8eab\u5229\u76ca\u6700\u5927\u5316\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u8d8b\u52bf\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u5e76\u672a\u671d\u5411\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u201c\u4e09\u6781\u7ed3\u6784\u201d\u6f14\u8fdb\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5b83\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u8d70\u5411\u788e\u7247\u5316\u3001\u591a\u6781\u5316\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6885\u91cc\u00b7\u9a6c\u8fbe\u6c99\u5e0c\uff08Mehri Madarshahi\uff09<\/strong>\u534e\u5357\u7406\u5de5\u5927\u5b66\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u7814\u7a76\u9662\uff08IPP\uff09\u8363\u8a89\u6559\u6388\u3001\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u6559\u79d1\u6587\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e0b\u5c5e\u56fd\u9645\u521b\u610f\u548c\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08ICCSD\uff09\u987e\u95ee\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u6210\u5458<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Honorary Professor\u00a0of The Institute of Public Policy (IPP) ,South China University of Technology (SCUT) ; \u00a0Member of the Advisory Committee of the International Center for Creativity and Sustainable Development under the auspicious of UNESO (ICCSD).<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>
\u6b63\u6587<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Iran Test: <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Strategic Autonomy and the Fracturing of Great-Power Coalitions<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u4f0a\u6717\u8003\u9a8c\uff1a\u6218\u7565\u81ea\u4e3b\u4e0e\u5927\u56fd\u8054\u76df\u7684\u74e6\u89e3<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u65b0\u5174\u201c\u4e09\u6781\u79e9\u5e8f\u201d\u7684\u5e7b\u8c61<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Illusion of Emerging Tripolarity<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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For several years, international debate has increasingly focused on the emergence of a tripolar international order structured around the United States, China, and Russia. Within this framework, much of the developing world, often collectively described as the \u201cGlobal South\u201d, has been expected to gravitate toward one or another of these major geopolitical poles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u56f4\u7ed5\u4f0a\u6717\u5371\u673a\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u89e3\u8bfb\u53ef\u80fd\u8fc7\u4e8e\u7b80\u5316\u3002\u4e0e\u5176\u8bf4\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5370\u8bc1\u4e86\u5bf9\u7acb\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u96c6\u56e2\u7684\u5de9\u56fa\uff0c\u4e0d\u5982\u8bf4\u5b83\u51f8\u663e\u4e86\u5927\u56fd\u8054\u76df\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u6027\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u5730\u533a\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u8ffd\u6c42\u6218\u7565\u81ea\u4e3b\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u65e5\u76ca\u589e\u5f3a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recent developments surrounding the Iran crisis, however, suggest that this interpretation may be overly simplistic. Rather than confirming the consolidation of rival geopolitical blocs, the episode highlights the limits of great-power alignment and reveals the growing importance of strategic autonomy among regional actors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4f0a\u6717\u7684\u56f0\u5883<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Iran\u2019s dilama<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

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Over the past decade, Iran has cultivated closer political, economic, and military ties with both Russia and China. These relationships were often interpreted as part of a broader geopolitical alignment aimed at counterbalancing Western influence. Expanding cooperation in energy, defence, and diplomacy appeared to signal the gradual consolidation of an alternative coalition within the international system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n

2025\u5e743\u670814\u65e5\uff0c\u4e2d\u4fc4\u4f0a\u5317\u4eac\u4f1a\u6664\u6210\u529f\u4e3e\u884c\u3002\u4e2d\u534e\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u90e8\u526f\u90e8\u957f\u9a6c\u671d\u65ed\u3001\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u8054\u90a6\u5916\u4ea4\u90e8\u526f\u90e8\u957f\u91cc\u4e9a\u5e03\u79d1\u592b\u3001\u4f0a\u6717\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u5171\u548c\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u90e8\u526f\u90e8\u957f\u52a0\u91cc\u5e03\u963f\u5df4\u8fea\u5206\u522b\u4e0e\u4f1a\u3002\uff08\u56fe\u6e90\uff1a\u592e\u89c6\u65b0\u95fb\uff09<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

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Yet the recent crisis demonstrated the inherent limits of these arrangements. While Moscow and Beijing expressed diplomatic support for Iran and criticized Western actions, neither power appeared willing to escalate the confrontation or provide direct strategic backing. Despite rhetorical alignment and growing partnerships, Iran ultimately faced the crisis largely on its own.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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This outcome underscores an important structural feature of contemporary geopolitics. Strategic partnerships among major powers and regional actors frequently lack the institutional depth and binding commitments that historically defined stable geopolitical blocs. Russia\u2019s economic constraints, China\u2019s global economic interdependence, and the shifting alliance patterns of the United States have all limited the emergence of clearly defined geopolitical poles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Rather than reinforcing bloc politics, the crisis exposed the transactional nature of many contemporary international partnerships. Major powers may cultivate relationships across the Global South, but when confronted with the risk of large-scale escalation, their core strategic priorities tend to prevail over commitments to regional partners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5168\u7403\u5357\u65b9\u7684\u8f6c\u578b<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Tran<\/strong>sformation of the Global South<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

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The implications of this episode extend far beyond Iran itself. For many countries across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, the crisis offers a sobering strategic lesson: partnerships with major powers do not necessarily translate into reliable security guarantees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\uff0c\u201c\u5168\u7403\u5357\u65b9\u201d\u5e38\u88ab\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u653f\u6cbb\u8eab\u4efd\uff0c\u5176\u5f62\u6210\u6e90\u4e8e\u5171\u540c\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u6311\u6218\u4ee5\u53ca\u540e\u6b96\u6c11\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u56e2\u7ed3\u7cbe\u795e\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6982\u5ff5\u4e0d\u65ad\u6f14\u53d8\u3002\u5982\u4eca\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5e7f\u4e49\u7fa4\u4f53\u4e2d\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u56fd\u5bb6\u2014\u2014\u5982\u5370\u5ea6\u3001\u5df4\u897f\u3001\u5370\u5ea6\u5c3c\u897f\u4e9a\u3001\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u548c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u2014\u2014\u5df2\u5177\u5907\u663e\u8457\u7684\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u80fd\u52a8\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u65e5\u76ca\u63a8\u52a8\u4ee5\u6218\u7565\u81ea\u4e3b\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Historically, the Global South was often described as a political identity shaped by shared developmental challenges and post-colonial solidarity. Over time, however, this concept has evolved. Today, many countries within this broad grouping, such as India, Brazil, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and T\u00fcrkiye, possess significant geopolitical agency and increasingly pursue foreign policies based on strategic autonomy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u5e76\u672a\u4e25\u683c\u4f9d\u9644\u4e8e\u7ade\u4e89\u6027\u5927\u56fd\u96c6\u56e2\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u529b\u56fe\u540c\u65f6\u5728\u591a\u65b9\u4f19\u4f34\u4e4b\u95f4\u4fdd\u6301\u5e73\u8861\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u201c\u5168\u7403\u5357\u65b9\u201d\u6b63\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a\u677e\u6563\u754c\u5b9a\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u8054\u76df\uff0c\u6f14\u53d8\u4e3a\u7531\u591a\u5143\u6218\u7565\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u661f\u5ea7\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u90fd\u6839\u636e\u81ea\u8eab\u56fd\u5bb6\u5229\u76ca\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u81ea\u4e3b\u8fd0\u7b79\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rather than aligning rigidly with competing great-power blocs, many of these states seek to balance relations with multiple partners simultaneously. The Global South is, therefore, evolving from a loosely defined political coalition into a constellation of diverse strategic actors, each navigating the international system according to its own national interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4f0a\u6717\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5370\u8bc1\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u4e0e\u5927\u56fd\u4fdd\u6301\u5bc6\u5207\u6218\u7565\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5728\u5371\u673a\u65f6\u523b\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u4f9d\u8d56\u5176\u76f4\u63a5\u4fdd\u62a4\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u53ef\u80fd\u56e0\u6b64\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a\u4f9d\u8d56\u8fdc\u65b9\u7684\u5e87\u62a4\u56fd\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u4fdd\u969c\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Iranian experience reinforces this trend. If even a state that maintains close strategic relations with major powers cannot rely on their direct protection in moments of crisis, other countries may conclude that dependence on distant patrons offers limited security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u4e00\u8ba4\u8bc6\u53ef\u80fd\u4fc3\u4f7f\u201c\u5168\u7403\u5357\u65b9\u201d\u7684\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u66f4\u52a0\u91cd\u89c6\u591a\u5143\u5316\u4f19\u4f34\u5173\u7cfb\u3001\u533a\u57df\u5916\u4ea4\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u56f4\u7ed5\u6218\u7565\u81ea\u4e3b\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u5efa\u8bbe\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This realization could encourage governments across the Global South to place greater emphasis on diversified partnerships, regional diplomacy, and autonomous strategic capabilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e2d<\/strong>\u7b49\u5f3a\u56fd\u4e0e\u6218\u7565\u5bf9\u51b2<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Middle Powers and Strateg<\/strong>ic Hedging<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u4e2d\u7b49\u5f3a\u56fd\u2014\u2014\u6307\u90a3\u4e9b\u5728\u5730\u533a\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u4f46\u5728\u5168\u7403\u5c42\u9762\u5f71\u54cd\u6709\u9650\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u2014\u2014\u5bf9\u6b64\u7c7b\u53d1\u5c55\u5c24\u4e3a\u654f\u611f\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u5371\u673a\u51f8\u663e\u4e86\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u8fdc\u65b9\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u5e87\u62a4\u56fd\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Middle powers states with significant regional influence but limited global reach, are particularly sensitive to these developments. For such countries, the Iran crisis highlights the risks associated with excessive reliance on distant geopolitical patrons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u65e5\u76ca\u4e24\u6781\u5316\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u4e2d\u7b49\u5f3a\u56fd\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u9009\u8fb9\u7ad9\u961f\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u52a0\u5927\u6218\u7565\u5bf9\u51b2\u7684\u529b\u5ea6\u3002\u6240\u8c13\u6218\u7565\u5bf9\u51b2\uff0c\u6307\u7684\u662f\u5728\u4e0e\u591a\u65b9\u5927\u56fd\u4fdd\u6301\u5408\u4f5c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u4e0e\u4efb\u4f55\u5355\u4e00\u5927\u56fd\u5f62\u6210\u6df1\u5ea6\u6218\u7565\u6346\u7ed1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rather than choosing sides in an increasingly polarized international environment, many middle powers may intensify strategies of strategic hedging. This approach involves maintaining cooperative relations with multiple major powers while avoiding deep strategic entanglements with any single one of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n

\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u603b\u7406\u5361\u5c3c\u5728\u8fbe\u6c83\u65af\u8bba\u575b\u4e0a\u547c\u5401\u5176\u4ed6\u201c\u4e2d\u7b49\u5f3a\u56fd\u201d\u5728\u9762\u5bf9\u5927\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u201c\u80c1\u8feb\u201d\u65f6\u56e2\u7ed3\u4e00\u81f4\u30022026\u5e74\u521d\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e2d\uff0c\u5361\u5c3c\u5728\u52a0\u5f3a\u4e0e\u5370\u5ea6\u3001\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u7b49\u975e\u8d85\u7ea7\u5927\u56fd\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u8bb2\u8bdd\u4e0e\u8bbf\u95ee\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u7c7b\u4f3c\u201c\u4e2d\u7b49\u5f3a\u56fd\u5408\u4f5c\u201d\u7684\u7406\u5ff5\u3002\u56fe\u6e90\uff1aAP<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u671d\u5411\u50f5\u5316\u7684\u5bf9\u6297\u6027\u96c6\u56e2\uff0c\u800c\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u66f4\u5f3a\u3001\u53bb\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5316\u7684\u683c\u5c40\u3002<\/strong>\u5730\u533a\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u548c\u4e2d\u7b49\u5f3a\u56fd\u5c06\u5728\u5851\u9020\u5916\u4ea4\u683c\u5c40\u548c\u6218\u7565\u7ed3\u679c\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u66f4\u52a0\u7a81\u51fa\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this context, the international system may evolve not toward rigid rival blocs but toward a more fluid and decentralized configuration. Regional actors and middle powers could play a more prominent role in shaping diplomatic alignments and strategic outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u79cd\u7b56\u7565\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4e2d\u7acb\u6216\u6d88\u6781\u3002\u6070\u6070\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5b83\u4f53\u73b0\u4e86\u5bf9\u788e\u7247\u5316\u56fd\u9645\u73af\u5883\u7684\u52a1\u5b9e\u9002\u5e94\u2014\u2014\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u50f5\u5316\u7684\u8054\u76df\u6240\u80fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u6218\u7565\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6b63\u65e5\u76ca\u51cf\u5f31\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such a strategy does not imply neutrality or passivity. On the contrary, it reflects a pragmatic adaptation to a fragmented international environment in which rigid alliances provide diminishing strategic certainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4f0a\u6717\u5371\u673a\uff1a\u542f\u793a\u6027\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Iran Crisis as a Revealing Case<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u5bf9\u4f0a\u6717\u7684\u653b\u51fb\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u59d4\u5185\u745e\u62c9\u53d1\u52a8\u7a81\u88ad\u4ec5\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\u4e4b\u540e\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5747\u4e0e\u5317\u4eac\u548c\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u4fdd\u6301\u7740\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u80fd\u6e90\u4f9b\u5e94\u56fd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attack on Iran occurred only two months after a U.S. raid against Venezuela, two governments that have maintained close relations with both Beijing and Moscow and that serve as significant energy suppliers to China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e00\u4e9b\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u58eb\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7f6e\u4e8e\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5927\u56fd\u7ade\u4e89\u6846\u67b6\u4e0b\u8fdb\u884c\u89e3\u8bfb\u3002\u6839\u636e\u54c8\u5fb7\u900a\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6253\u51fb\u4e0d\u5e94\u4ec5\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u5b64\u7acb\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u800c\u5e94\u88ab\u770b\u4f5c\u5851\u9020\u6240\u8c13\u201c\u5370\u592a\u4e16\u7eaa\u201d\u65b0\u683c\u5c40\u7684\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u6218\u7565\u535a\u5f08\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some analysts have interpreted these events within the broader framework of great-power competition. According to the Hudson Institute, such strikes should be viewed not simply as isolated military operations but as part of a broader strategic contest shaping what it describes as the emerging \u201cIndo-Pacific century.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u514b\u5236\u56de\u5e94\uff0c\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u6240\u8c13\u65b0\u5174\u201c\u4e09\u6781\u53d9\u4e8b\u201d\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The restrained responses of China and Russia illustrate the limits of the emerging tripolar narrative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e2d\u56fd<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

China<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u79c9\u6301\u65e2\u6709\u5916\u4ea4\u7acb\u573a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bf9\u7f8e\u4ee5\u8054\u5408\u6253\u51fb\u884c\u52a8\u4e88\u4ee5\u8c34\u8d23\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u907f\u514d\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u4efb\u4f55\u76f4\u63a5\u519b\u4e8b\u627f\u8bfa\u7684\u8ff9\u8c61\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u5c06\u7f8e\u4ee5\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u5b9a\u6027\u4e3a\u5bf9\u4f0a\u6717\u4e3b\u6743\u53ca\u300a\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u5baa\u7ae0\u300b\u539f\u5219\u7684\u4fb5\u72af\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consistent with its established diplomatic posture, China responded to the U.S.-Israeli strikes with strong rhetorical condemnation while avoiding any indication of direct military commitment. Beijing characterized the actions as a violation of Iran\u2019s sovereignty and of the principles of the United Nations Charter. Yet its response remained confined to diplomatic language.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u4e3b\u8981\u4f5c\u4e3a\u80fd\u6e90\u4f9b\u5e94\u56fd\u3001\u5916\u4ea4\u4f19\u4f34\u53ca\u53d7\u5236\u88c1\u6298\u6263\uff08sanctions-discounted\uff09\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u4f20\u7edf\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684\u6b63\u5f0f\u6761\u7ea6\u76df\u53cb\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e3a\u4f0a\u6717\u76f4\u63a5\u4e0e\u534e\u76db\u987f\u5bf9\u6297\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6218\u7565\u5229\u76ca\u5341\u5206\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4f34\u968f\u7740\u76f8\u5f53\u5927\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For China, Iran is primarily valuable as an energy supplier, diplomatic partner, and sanctions-discounted economic market rather than as a formal treaty ally. In such circumstances, direct confrontation with Washington on Iran\u2019s behalf would offer limited strategic benefits while carrying considerable risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u907f\u514d\u9677\u5165\u6218\u7565\u56f0\u5883\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4fdd\u6301\u5bf9\u4f18\u5148\u6218\u7565\u533a\u57df\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u53f0\u6e7e\u5730\u533a\u548c\u5357\u6d77\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u7acb\u573a\u4f7f\u5317\u4eac\u80fd\u591f\u8c34\u8d23\u6b66\u529b\u4f7f\u7528\u3001\u634d\u536b\u4e3b\u6743\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5c06\u5728\u8fdc\u8ddd\u79bb\u51b2\u7a81\u4e2d\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u6210\u672c\u964d\u81f3\u6700\u4f4e\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u65c1\u89c2\u7acb\u573a\u4f7f\u4e2d\u56fd\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u4e0d\u76f4\u63a5\u4ecb\u5165\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u89c2\u5bdf\u7f8e\u519b\u7684\u4f5c\u6218\u884c\u52a8\u53ca\u540e\u52e4\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the short term, China appears determined to avoid strategic entrapment while preserving its focus on priority theatres, particularly Taiwan and the South China Sea. This posture allows Beijing to condemn the use of force and defend principles of sovereignty while minimizing the costs of military involvement in a distant conflict. At the same time, remaining on the sidelines allows China to observe U.S. military operations and logistical capabilities without direct exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e2d\u56fd\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e2d\u4e1c\u80fd\u6e90\u4f9b\u5e94\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7ea645%\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u8fdb\u53e3\u9700\u7ecf\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\u3002\u7531\u6b64\u53ef\u89c1\uff0c\u6d77\u6e7e\u5730\u533a\u82e5\u51fa\u73b0\u957f\u671f\u4f9b\u5e94\u4e2d\u65ad\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u786e\u5b9e\u4e5f\u4f1a\u9020\u6210\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u4e0d\u5229\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, China\u2019s position is not without vulnerability. The country remains highly dependent on Middle Eastern energy supplies, and approximately 45 percent of its oil imports transit the Strait of Hormuz. Any prolonged disruption in the Gulf would therefore carry significant economic consequences for Beijing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n

\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\u53ca\u5176\u9644\u8fd1\u533a\u57df\u57282026\u5e742\u670828\u65e5\u81f33\u670811\u65e5\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u5546\u8239\u88ad\u51fb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5206\u5e03\uff08\u84dd\u8272\u5706\u70b9\uff1a\u6cb9\u8f6e\uff1b\u7a7a\u5fc3\u5706\uff1a\u5176\u4ed6\u8239\u8236\uff09\u3002\u56fe\u6e90\uff1aAFP<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5730\u770b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e5f\u51f8\u663e\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bf9\u5916\u6218\u7565\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u7279\u5f81\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u5408\u4f5c\u5173\u7cfb\u5f80\u5f80\u4ee5\u6df1\u5ea6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5d4c\u5165\u548c\u878d\u5408\u4e3a\u6838\u5fc3\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5b89\u5168\u627f\u8bfa\u4e0a\u5219\u76f8\u5bf9\u6709\u9650\u3002\u867d\u7136\u4ece\u4e2d\u56fd\u81ea\u8eab\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6a21\u5f0f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7406\u6027\u7684\uff1b\u4f46\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9762\u4e34\u8feb\u5207\u5b89\u5168\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u4f19\u4f34\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5e0c\u671b\u5f97\u5230\u6765\u81ea\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u66f4\u591a\u5b89\u5168\u4fdd\u969c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More broadly, the episode highlights a structural feature of China\u2019s external engagement strategy. Beijing\u2019s international partnerships are often characterized by deep economic integration combined with relatively limited security commitments. While this model may appear rational from China\u2019s perspective, it may prove less reassuring to partners confronted with acute security threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Russia<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u81ea2022\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u4e5f\u6210\u4e3a\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u4e0e\u5916\u4ea4\u4f19\u4f34\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4e0e\u4f0a\u6717\u4e8e2025\u5e741\u6708\u7b7e\u7f72\u7684\u5168\u9762\u6218\u7565\u4f19\u4f34\u5173\u7cfb\u6761\u7ea6\u5e76\u672a\u5305\u542b\u5171\u540c\u9632\u5fa1\u6761\u6b3e\u3002\u4e0e\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4e0e\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u6216\u671d\u9c9c\u7b49\u56fd\u7684\u5b89\u6392\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u53cc\u65b9\u7b7e\u8ba2\u7684\u6761\u7ea6\u5e76\u672a\u8981\u6c42\u8fdb\u884c\u519b\u4e8b\u5e72\u9884\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran has also become an important military and diplomatic partner for Russia since 2022. Nevertheless, the Russia\u2013Iran strategic partnership agreement signed in January 2025 does not include a mutual defence clause. Unlike Russia\u2019s arrangements with states such as Belarus or North Korea, the agreement stops short of obligating military intervention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u7f8e\u4ee5\u5bf9\u4f0a\u6717\u53d1\u8d77\u6253\u51fb\u65f6\uff0c\u514b\u91cc\u59c6\u6797\u5bab\u8c34\u8d23\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u65f6\u5374\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u4f0a\u6717\u5e76\u672a\u8bf7\u6c42\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u63d0\u4f9b\u519b\u4e8b\u63f4\u52a9\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u8868\u8ff0\u4f7f\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u80fd\u591f\u4f20\u8fbe\u653f\u6cbb\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u800c\u65e0\u9700\u8d8a\u8fc7\u76f4\u63a5\u4ecb\u5165\u7684\u95e8\u69db\u3002\u4ece\u77ed\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4ece\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u4ee5\u53ca\u897f\u65b9\u6218\u7565\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u4ece\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u6218\u4e89\u4e0a\u8f6c\u79fb\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4ece\u653f\u6cbb\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8fd9\u573a\u5371\u673a\u53ef\u80fd\u635f\u5bb3\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u4f5c\u4e3a\u53ef\u9760\u6218\u7565\u4f19\u4f34\u7684\u5f62\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When the strikes occurred, the Kremlin condemned the attacks but emphasized that Iran had not requested Russian military assistance. This formulation allowed Moscow to signal political support without crossing the threshold into direct involvement. In the short term, Russia may benefit economically from higher energy prices and from any diversion of Western strategic attention away from the war in Ukraine. Politically, however, the crisis risks damaging Moscow\u2019s image as a reliable strategic partner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5373\u4fbf\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4ece\u672a\u6b63\u5f0f\u627f\u8bfa\u63d0\u4f9b\u519b\u4e8b\u9632\u62a4\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u5916\u754c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5176\u65e0\u6cd5\u6216\u4e0d\u613f\u4fdd\u62a4\u5408\u4f5c\u4f19\u4f34\uff0c\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u9020\u6210\u58f0\u8a89\u53d7\u635f\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u65e0\u6cd5\u4fdd\u969c\u4f19\u4f34\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u6216\u8bb8\u4ecd\u80fd\u591f\u8ba9\u4ed6\u56fd\u656c\u754f\uff0c\u4f46\u96be\u4ee5\u771f\u6b63\u8d62\u5f97\u4fe1\u4efb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even if Russia never formally promised military defence, the perception that it was unable or unwilling to protect a close partner may carry reputational costs. A power that cannot shield its partners may still inspire fear, but it inspires less confidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n

\u4f0a\u6717\u603b\u7edf\u9a6c\u82cf\u5fb7\u00b7\u4f69\u6cfd\u4ec0\u57fa\u626c\u548c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u603b\u7edf\u5f17\u62c9\u57fa\u7c73\u5c14\u00b7\u666e\u4eac\u53bb\u5e74\u5728\u4e0a\u6d77\u4f1a\u6664\u3002\u56fe\u6e90\uff1a\u5854\u65af\u793e<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The United States<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u59d4\u5185\u745e\u62c9\u548c\u4f0a\u6717\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u540c\u6837\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u6218\u7565\u8003\u91cf\u3002\u5728\u59d4\u5185\u745e\u62c9\u7684\u7a81\u88ad\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u51f8\u663e\u4e86\u534e\u76db\u987f\u4ecd\u613f\u610f\u5728\u5176\u81ea\u89c6\u4e3a\u4f20\u7edf\u52bf\u529b\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u6295\u5c04\u538b\u5012\u6027\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. operations in Venezuela and Iran also appear to reflect broader strategic calculations. The raid in Venezuela demonstrated Washington\u2019s willingness to project overwhelming military power within what it still considers its traditional sphere of influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u8be5\u884c\u52a8\u4f3c\u4e4e\u65e8\u5728\u5b9e\u73b0\u653f\u6cbb\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u9488\u5bf9\u9886\u5bfc\u5c42\u5b9e\u65bd\u201c\u65a9\u9996\u201d\u884c\u52a8\u6216\u5bf9\u653f\u6743\u65bd\u52a0\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u907f\u514d\u5bf9\u80fd\u6e90\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u9020\u6210\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7834\u574f\u3002\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5176\u6218\u7565\u610f\u56fe\u662f\u201c\u7cbe\u786e\u5e72\u9884\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u65e0\u5dee\u522b\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u884c\u4e3a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the operation appeared designed to achieve political objectives, such as leadership decapitation or regime pressure, without causing large-scale disruption to energy infrastructure. This suggests a strategy of calibrated intervention rather than indiscriminate warfare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n

\u5f53\u5730\u65f6\u95f43\u67085\u65e5\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u52a1\u9662\u5ba3\u5e03\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u59d4\u5185\u745e\u62c9\u5df2\u540c\u610f\u6062\u590d\u5916\u4ea4\u548c\u9886\u4e8b\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u56fe\u4e3a\u59d4\u5185\u745e\u62c9\u4e34\u65f6\u603b\u7edf\u5fb7\u5c14\u897f\u00b7\u7f57\u5fb7\u91cc\u683c\u65af\uff08\u53f3\uff09\u5728\u59d4\u5185\u745e\u62c9\u9996\u90fd\u52a0\u62c9\u52a0\u65af\u7c73\u62c9\u5f17\u6d1b\u96f7\u65af\u603b\u7edf\u5e9c\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5185\u653f\u90e8\u957f\u9053\u683c\u00b7\u4f2f\u53e4\u59c6\uff08\u5de6\uff09\u7684\u966a\u540c\u4e0b\u7b7e\u7f72\u6587\u4ef6\u3002\u56fe\u6e90\uff1aPBS<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u6d89\u53ca\u4f0a\u6717\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u53ef\u80fd\u540c\u6837\u4f53\u73b0\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u6218\u7565\u5192\u9669\u3002\u5728\u9488\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u91cd\u8981\u5730\u533a\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u5927\u56fd\u76f4\u63a5\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u8f83\u4f4e\uff0c\u534e\u76db\u987f\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5224\u65ad\u56fd\u9645\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u73af\u5883\u662f\u5141\u8bb8\u5176\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The conflict involving Iran may similarly represent a broader strategic gamble. By targeting a major regional adversary while the likelihood of direct intervention by other major powers remained low, Washington appears to have calculated that the geopolitical environment was permissive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4ece\u77ed\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u5176\u519b\u4e8b\u6295\u5c04\u80fd\u529b\u4e0e\u6218\u7565\u4e3b\u52a8\u6027\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u653f\u6743\u66f4\u8fed\u884c\u52a8\u548c\u5b9a\u70b9\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u5e38\u6001\u5316\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u89c4\u8303\u6b66\u529b\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u89c4\u5219\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u4ea7\u751f\u6df1\u8fdc\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the short term, the United States has demonstrated military reach and strategic initiative. However, the normalization of regime-change operations and targeted interventions could have long-term consequences for the stability of international norms governing the use of force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5927\u56fd\u7684\u201c\u4fe1\u8a89\u9e3f\u6c9f\u201d<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Credibility Gap of Great Powers<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8bb8\u591a\u6765\u81ea\u201c\u5168\u7403\u5357\u65b9\u201d\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u4eba\u58eb\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u4e8b\u4ef6\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6839\u672c\u6027\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u897f\u65b9\u5927\u56fd\u8fd8\u662f\u975e\u897f\u65b9\u5927\u56fd\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u65b9\u80fd\u591f\u771f\u6b63\u6210\u4e3a\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u6218\u7565\u4fdd\u62a4\u8005<\/strong>\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For many observers across the Global South, the Iran episode raises a fundamental question: can any major power, Western or non-Western, serve as a reliable strategic protector?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u4e00\u5371\u673a\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5f53\u6838\u5fc3\u5229\u76ca\u672a\u76f4\u63a5\u53d7\u5230\u5a01\u80c1\u65f6\uff0c\u5f53\u4ee3\u5927\u56fd\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5c06\u81ea\u8eab\u6218\u7565\u8003\u91cf\u7f6e\u4e8e\u4f19\u4f34\u9632\u5fa1\u4e4b\u4e0a\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u4e2d\u5f97\u51fa\u82e5\u5e72\u542f\u793a\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The crisis suggests that contemporary great powers increasingly prioritize their own strategic calculations over the defence of partners when core interests are not directly at stake. Several lessons may therefore emerge:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6218\u7565\u81ea\u4e3b\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u65e5\u76ca\u51f8\u663e\u3002<\/strong>\u5404\u56fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u60f3\u5f53\u7136\u5730\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5728\u5371\u673a\u65f6\u523b\uff0c\u8fdc\u65b9\u5927\u56fd\u4f1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u4fdd\u969c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, strategic autonomy has become increasingly important. Countries cannot assume that distant powers will provide security guarantees in moments of crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u6218\u7565\u5bf9\u51b2\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/strong>\u5404\u56fd\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u65e5\u76ca\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u5927\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u5206\u6563\u4f19\u4f34\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u4f9d\u8d56\u5355\u4e00\u7684\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u5e87\u62a4\u56fd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second, strategic hedging is likely to become the dominant diplomatic strategy. States may increasingly diversify their partnerships across multiple powers rather than relying on a single geopolitical patron.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u4e2d\u7b49\u5f3a\u56fd\u53ef\u80fd\u901a\u8fc7\u534f\u8c03\u533a\u57df\u6027\u4e3e\u63aa\u548c\u7075\u6d3b\u8054\u76df\uff0c\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Third, middle powers may gain influence within the international system by coordinating regional initiatives and flexible coalitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8d70\u5411\u788e\u7247\u5316\u7684\u591a\u6781\u5316<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Toward Fragmented Multipolarity<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u7efc\u5408\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d1\u5c55\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u5e76\u672a\u671d\u5411\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u201c\u4e09\u6781\u7ed3\u6784\u201d\u6f14\u8fdb\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5b83\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u8d70\u5411\u788e\u7247\u5316\u591a\u6781\u5316\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e00\u56fd\u9645\u73af\u5883\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u5b58\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u4e2d\u5fc3\u3001\u8054\u76df\u5173\u7cfb\u7075\u6d3b\u591a\u53d8\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5916\u4ea4\u884c\u4e3a\u9ad8\u5ea6\u52a1\u5b9e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taken together, these developments suggest that the international system is not converging toward a stable tripolar structure. Instead, it appears to be moving toward fragmented multipolarity, an environment characterized by multiple centers of influence, fluid coalitions, and pragmatic diplomacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\uff0c\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u683c\u5c40\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u56fa\u5316\u4e3a\u50f5\u5316\u7684\u96c6\u56e2\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u5c06\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u6839\u636e\u5177\u4f53\u5229\u76ca\u548c\u533a\u57df\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u8ffd\u6c42\u7075\u6d3b\u591a\u53d8\u7684\u4f19\u4f34\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In such a system, geopolitical alignments are less likely to crystallize into rigid blocs. Instead, states will increasingly pursue flexible partnerships tailored to specific interests and regional contexts.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6218\u7565\u6781\u7b80\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e0e\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u5e87\u62a4\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u8870\u843d<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Strategic Minimalism and the Decline of Geopolitical Patronage<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u53ef\u80fd\u6b63\u8fdb\u5165\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u5927\u56fd\u529b\u56fe\u7ef4\u6301\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5c3d\u91cf\u51cf\u5c11\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u627f\u8bfa\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u65b0\u5174\u683c\u5c40\u53ef\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u6218\u7565\u6781\u7b80\u4e3b\u4e49\u201d\uff08strategic minimalism\uff09\u3002<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The international system may therefore be entering a new phase in which major powers seek to preserve influence while minimizing direct security commitments. This emerging pattern can be described as strategic minimalism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u51b7\u6218\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u653f\u6cbb\u683c\u5c40\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u76f8\u5bf9\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u5e87\u62a4\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e4b\u4e0a\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u82cf\u8054\u7ef4\u6301\u7740\u7531\u76df\u53cb\u548c\u9644\u5c5e\u56fd\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u901a\u8fc7\u6b63\u5f0f\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u4fdd\u969c\u3001\u519b\u4e8b\u63f4\u52a9\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u652f\u6301\u83b7\u5f97\u7ef4\u62a4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the Cold War, global politics was structured around relatively clear systems of geopolitical patronage. The United States and the Soviet Union maintained networks of allies and client states supported through formal security guarantees, military assistance, and economic aid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5982\u4eca\u7684\u5927\u56fd\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u4e0d\u613f\u627f\u62c5\u6b64\u7c7b\u627f\u8bfa\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6210\u672c\u4e0e\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5f80\u5f80\u901a\u8fc7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5408\u4f5c\u3001\u5916\u4ea4\u53c2\u4e0e\u4ee5\u53ca\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u5e72\u9884\u6765\u8c0b\u6c42\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, however, major powers appear increasingly reluctant to assume the costs and risks associated with such commitments. Instead, they often seek influence through economic partnerships, diplomatic engagement, and selective intervention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u79cd\u8f6c\u53d8\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5927\u56fd\u7684\u8131\u79bb\u3002\u5927\u56fd\u4ecd\u6df1\u5ea6\u53c2\u4e0e\u5168\u7403\u4e8b\u52a1\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u53c2\u4e0e\u65b9\u5f0f\u65e5\u76ca\u8868\u73b0\u4e3a\u7ecf\u8fc7\u7cbe\u786e\u6743\u8861\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u65bd\u5c55\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u65e0\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u4fdd\u62a4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This transformation does not imply disengagement. Great powers remain deeply involved in global affairs, but their engagement increasingly takes the form of calibrated influence rather than unconditional protection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8bb8\u591a\u56fd\u5bb6\u2014\u2014\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e0d\u5c5e\u4e8e\u6b63\u5f0f\u8054\u76df\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u79cd\u8f6c\u53d8\u53ef\u80fd\u610f\u5473\u7740\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u52a0\u91cd\u89c6\u81ea\u529b\u66f4\u751f\u3001\u533a\u57df\u5408\u4f5c\u4ee5\u53ca\u591a\u5143\u5316\u4f19\u4f34\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For many states-particularly those outside formal alliance structures-this shift may require greater emphasis on self-reliance, regional cooperation, and diversified partnerships.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7ed3\u8bba<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u4f0a\u6717\u5371\u673a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u6216\u8bb8\u5e76\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u5176\u5373\u65f6\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u6216\u5916\u4ea4\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u5b83\u5411\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u4f20\u9012\u7684\u6218\u7565\u542f\u793a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Iran crisis may ultimately prove less important for its immediate military or diplomatic consequences than for the strategic lessons it conveys to the broader international community.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5168\u7403\u5357\u65b9\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u56fd\u5bb6\u4ee5\u53ca\u65b0\u5174\u4e2d\u7b49\u5f3a\u56fd\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6\u51f8\u663e\u4e86\u5728\u65e5\u76ca\u788e\u7247\u5316\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\uff0c\u5927\u56fd\u5e87\u62a4\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u6027\u3002\u4e0e\u5927\u56fd\u5efa\u7acb\u4f19\u4f34\u5173\u7cfb\u867d\u7136\u53ef\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u7ecf\u6d4e\u673a\u4f1a\u548c\u5916\u4ea4\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u4e0d\u5fc5\u7136\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u4fdd\u969c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For many countries across the Global South and among emerging middle powers, the episode highlights the limits of great-power patronage in an increasingly fragmented international system. Partnerships with major powers may offer economic opportunities and diplomatic support, but they do not necessarily translate into reliable security guarantees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u79cd\u8ba4\u77e5\u5728\u66f4\u5927\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u6269\u6563\u5f00\u6765\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u5371\u673a\u7684\u6301\u4e45\u5f71\u54cd\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u51b2\u7a81\u672c\u8eab\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u8981\u5927\u56fd\u8bd5\u56fe\u57f9\u80b2\u7684\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u8054\u76df\u9010\u6e10\u74e6\u89e3\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If this perception spreads, the lasting legacy of the Iran crisis may not be the conflict itself but the gradual erosion of the geopolitical coalitions that the world\u2019s major powers have sought to cultivate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Origin: https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s\/wNi5EsZil5CQQDzopgfmrg \u5bfc\u8bed\uff1a\u81ea2\u670828\u65e5\u7f8e\u4ee5\u8054\u519b\u5bf9\u4f0a\u6717\u53d1\u52a8\u4ee3\u53f7\u201c\u53f2\u8bd7\u4e4b\u6012\u201d\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u884c\u52a8\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u4e8b\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0d\u65ad\u5916\u6ea2\uff0c\u5927\u56fd\u5728\u5e94\u5bf9\u5371\u673a\u65f6\u7684\u6218\u7565\u8003\u91cf\u5907\u53d7\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u3001\u6cd5\u56fd\u3001\u5fb7\u56fd\u7b49\u4f20\u7edf\u6b27\u6d32\u4e3b\u8981\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5370\u5ea6\u3001\u571f\u8033\u5176\u7b49\u5168\u7403\u4e2d\u7b49\u5f3a\u56fd\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6b63\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u66f4\u6df1\u5c42\u6b21\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u79e9\u5e8f\u8c03\u6574\u3002 IPP\u8363\u8a89\u6559\u6388\u6885\u91cc\u00b7\u9a6c\u8fbe\u6c99\u5e0c\uff08Mehri Madarshahi\uff09\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u4e8b\u66b4\u9732\u51fa\u201c\u5927\u56fd\u8054\u76df\u201d\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u56fa\u6709\u5c40\u9650\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5f70\u663e\u51fa\u6218\u7565\u81ea\u4e3b\u6027\u5728\u5f53\u4eca\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u65e5\u76ca\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u4ee5\u201c\u5168\u7403\u5357\u65b9\u201d\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e3a\u4ee3\u8868\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5370\u5ea6\u3001\u5df4\u897f\u3001\u5370\u5c3c\u3001\u6c99\u7279\u548c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u7b49\u5177\u5907\u72ec\u7acb\u5916\u4ea4\u80fd\u52a8\u6027\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\uff0c\u6216\u5c06\u9010\u6b65\u8131\u79bb\u5bf9\u7279\u5b9a\u5927\u56fd\u96c6\u56e2\u7684\u4f9d\u9644\uff0c\u8f6c\u800c\u901a\u8fc7\u6218\u7565\u5bf9\u51b2\u4e0e\u591a\u8fb9\u534f\u4f5c\u8c0b\u6c42\u81ea\u8eab\u5229\u76ca\u6700\u5927\u5316\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u8d8b\u52bf\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u5e76\u672a\u671d\u5411\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u201c\u4e09\u6781\u7ed3\u6784\u201d\u6f14\u8fdb\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5b83\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u8d70\u5411\u788e\u7247\u5316\u3001\u591a\u6781\u5316\u3002 \u6885\u91cc\u00b7\u9a6c\u8fbe\u6c99\u5e0c\uff08Mehri Madarshahi\uff09\u534e\u5357\u7406\u5de5\u5927\u5b66\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u7814\u7a76\u9662\uff08IPP\uff09\u8363\u8a89\u6559\u6388\u3001\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u6559\u79d1\u6587\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e0b\u5c5e\u56fd\u9645\u521b\u610f\u548c\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08ICCSD\uff09\u987e\u95ee\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u6210\u5458 Honorary Professor\u00a0of The Institute of Public Policy (IPP) ,South China University of Technology (SCUT) ; \u00a0Member of the Advisory Committee of the International Center for Creativity and Sustainable Development under the auspicious of UNESO (ICCSD). \u6b63\u6587 The Iran Test:  Strategic Autonomy and the Fracturing of Great-Power Coalitions \u4f0a\u6717\u8003\u9a8c\uff1a\u6218\u7565\u81ea\u4e3b\u4e0e\u5927\u56fd\u8054\u76df\u7684\u74e6\u89e3 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":5493,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"off","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5492","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-publications"],"acf":[],"publishpress_future_action":{"enabled":false,"date":"2026-04-30 08:52:38","action":"change-status","newStatus":"draft","terms":[],"taxonomy":"category","extraData":[]},"publishpress_future_workflow_manual_trigger":{"enabledWorkflows":[]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cultureisglobal.org\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5492","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cultureisglobal.org\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cultureisglobal.org\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cultureisglobal.org\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cultureisglobal.org\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5492"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/cultureisglobal.org\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5492\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5500,"href":"https:\/\/cultureisglobal.org\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5492\/revisions\/5500"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cultureisglobal.org\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5493"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cultureisglobal.org\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5492"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cultureisglobal.org\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5492"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cultureisglobal.org\/staging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5492"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}